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Oil Trade - November 2017
Source: OPEC_RP171110 11/13/2017, Location: Europe
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In October, preliminary data shows that US crude oil imports increased to average 7.7 mb/d, up by 564 tb/d from last month and an increase of 132 tb/d from the same month a year earlier. Year-to-date (y-t-d), US crude imports were 110 tb/d higher. US product imports dropped from the previous month to average 2 mb/d, down by 91 tb/d, or 4%, y-o-y. Y-t-d, product imports declined by 3%.

In Japan, crude oil imports declined in September by 34 tb/d, or 1%, from the previous month, to average 3.1 mb/d. Crude imports declined by 66 tb/d, or 2%, y-o-y. Japan’s product imports were down by 145 tb/d or 24% m-o-m, but stayed almost flat from last year to average 442 tb/d, the lowest level in the current year so far.

China’s crude imports increased by 1 mb/d, almost reaching the peak seen in March 2017, to average 9 mb/d in September, up by 13% from the previous month and 12% from a year ago. China’s crude imports increased as stocks were seen higher as well. China’s product imports rose by 91 tb/d from a month ago to average 1.4 mb/d in September, remaining 265 tb/d above the year-ago level.

In September, India’s crude imports dropped from the previous month by a slight 22 tb/d to average 4.3 mb/d, showing a drop of 57 tb/d, or 2%, y-o-y. Product imports declined as well by 78 tb/d from the previous month to average 761 tb/d, the lowest level since June 2017. Y-o-y, product imports dropped by 69 tb/d.

US
In October, preliminary data shows that US crude oil imports increased to average 7.7 mb/d, up by 564 tb/d from a month earlier and an increase of 132 tb/d from the same month last year. Y-t-d, US crude imports were 110 tb/d higher. The increase in crude imports comes in line with higher refinery throughput, which increased by almost 570 tb/d in the same month.

US monthly product imports dropped from a month earlier to average 2 mb/d, and declined by 91 tb/d, or 4%, y-o-y. Y-t-d, product imports declined by 3%.

Crude exports showed a remarkable surge, as preliminary data indicates an increase of 544 tb/d to stand at 1.8 mb/d in October.

In October, US product exports were 1.06 mb/d higher than seen a month ago, to average 5.3 mb/d. Y-o-y, product exports were up by 790 tb/d.

As a result, US total net imports declined in October by 1.3 mb/d to average 2.7 mb/d.

In August the top first and second supplier to US maintained the same order as seen in the previous month. Canada remained the premier crude supplier to the US, accounting for 44% of total US crude imports as it increased its exports to the US by 207 tb/d from a month earlier. Saudi Arabia, the second largest supplier to the US in August, saw its exports to the US drop by 56 tb/d. Venezuela came as third top supplier, accounting for 7% of total US crude imports. However its exports to the US were down by 100 tb/d from a month before.

Crude imports from OPEC Member Countries dropped in August by 292 tb/d, or 9%, from the previous month, accounting for 37% of total US crude oil imports. On the other hand, US product imports from OPEC Member Countries were up by 74 tb/d, or 35%, from a month earlier.

As to the product supplier share, Canada and Russia maintained their positions as first and second supplier to the US, accounting for 24% and 17%, respectively. Canada’s product exports to the US in August were down by 16 tb/d from a month ago, while Russia exported 63 tb/d more to the US. Algeria came as the third supplier to the US, as its product exports were up by 34 tb/d from a month earlier.

As to US crude imports by region, in August US crude imports from North America averaged 3.4 mb/d, to remain the premier supplier to the US, followed by Latin America which exported 1.9 mb/d in August to the US. Imports from the Middle East declined from last month, coming in as third region with an average of 1.9 mb/d. Imports from Africa increased from last month to average 855 tb/d.

Japan
Japan’s crude oil imports saw a decline by 34 tb/d, or 1%, to average 3.1 mb/d in September. On a y-o-y comparison, crude imports showed a decline of 66 tb/d, or 2%.

As to the crude suppliers’ share, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait remained the top suppliers to Japan in September. Saudi Arabia held a share of 37% of total crude imports in Japan, the UAE was the second largest supplier with a share of 27%, while Kuwait held the third position in September with a share of 9%. Imports from both top countries declined in September from a month earlier by 174 tb/d, and 36 tb/d, respectively. Imports from Kuwait increased by 75 tb/d.

Product imports declined in September by 145 tb/d, or 24%, m-o-m, to average 442 tb/d, the lowest level in the current year so far. However product imports were almost flat from the previous year. Japan’s domestic oil product sales rose 0.6 % in September from a year before.

Product exports rose by 25 tb/d, or 4%, m-o-m in September to average 696 tb/d. Y-o-y, product exports show a gain of 33 tb/d, or 5%.

Accordingly Japan’s net imports dropped in September by 204 tb/d, or 7%, m-o-m to average 2.9 mb/d, and down by 3% y-o-y.

China
China’s crude imports soared in September by almost 1 mb/d, close to the peak level seen in March 2017. China’s crude imports averaged 9 mb/d in September, up by 13% from the previous month and an increase of 12% from the previous year. China crude imports rose in September as refinery throughput increased to a new peak level, averaging 12 mb/d. Y-t-d crude imports were up by 951 tb/d or 13%.

As to crude oil supplier share, Russia, Angola and Saudi Arabia were the top suppliers to China in September accounting for 17%, 13%, and 12%, respectively. Crude imports from these three top suppliers increased from the previous month by 504 tb/d,155 tb/d and 179 tb/d, respectively. Crude volumes imported from Iraq, the fourth largest supplier to China in September increased by 100 tb/d m-o-m.

China’s product imports rose by 91 tb/d from a month ago to average 1.4 mb/d in September and remain 265 tb/d above last year’s level.

As to crude exports, China exported 109 tb/d in September, up by 47 tb/d m-o-m, reaching the highest level of exports since March 2017. China’s product exports were down by 169 tb/d, or 14%, from a month earlier and 136 tb/d, or 12%, below the level of the same month a year earlier, to average 1 mb/d.

As a result, China’s net oil imports in September increased by 1.2 mb/d from the previous month to average 9.3 mb/d and were up by 1.4 mb/d from a year ago.

India
In September, India’s crude imports dropped from a month earlier by a slight 22 tb/d, to average 4.3 mb/d. Y-o-y, crude imports reflect a drop of 57 tb/d, or 2%. India’s refining throughput remained flat during the same time.

Product imports in September declined by 78 tb/d from the previous month, to average 761 tb/d, the lowest level since June 2017, and decreased by 69 tb/d y-o-y. Monthly product imports were mainly lower in LPG, which dropped by 77 tb/d, or 18%, from a month ago.

India’s product exports were up in September by 146 tb/d, or 10%, to average 1.6 mb/d. On a y-o-y basis, product exports increased by 32 tb/d, or 2%.

India’s product exports were higher in all most all product categories in September, mainly diesel and gasoline, which increased by 81 tb/d and 35 tb/d from the previous month.

Consequentially, India’s net imports declined by 247 tb/d, or 7%, m-o-m to average 3.4 mb/d in September, and dropped by 158 tb/d, or 5%, y-o-y.

FSU
In September, total crude oil exports from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) dropped by 268 tb/d, or 4%, to average 6.5 mb/d, while Russian crude exports dropped by a slight 23 tb/d, or 1%, to average 4.1 mb/d.

Total shipments from the Black Sea dropped, with shipments from Novorossiysk down by 120 tb/d, or 19%, to average 511 tb/d.

Total Baltic Sea exports rose by 166 tb/d in September, as shipments from both the Primorsk and the Ust Luga port terminals increased by 122 tb/d and 44 tb/d, respectively.

Druzhba pipeline total shipments increased by 60 tb/d to average 1.1 mb/d in September.

Exports through the Lukoil system all declined from the previous month. In the Barents Sea, the Varandey offshore platform showed a drop of 46 tb/d, while in the Baltic Sea, the Kalinigrad port terminal showed slight decline of 3 tb/d.

Other routes showed mixed performances in September from a month earlier: Russian Fareast total exports were less by 106 tb/d, or 33%, from the previous month as a result of a drop in exports from the de Kastri port terminal by 160 tb/d. This drop was offset by an increase from the Aniva bay port terminal, which increased its exports by 55 tb/d from a month before to average 149 tb/d. Central Asian total exports stood at 253 tb/d, up by 10 tb/d.

FSU total product exports showed minor changes from the previous month to average 2.6 mb/d. Despite stable average volumes, product exports saw declines in exports of gasoline and fuel oil, while exports of naphtha and VGO increased by 74 tb/d and 63 tb/d, respectively.


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